The Guessing Game

Friday, December 09, 2005


Every day, journalists turn to "experts" to predict the outcome of current political trends. How often are these professional prophets right? Psychologist Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, followed-up on the prognostications of a few hundred "experts." He tells Brooke that being an expert is often the best predictor... of being wrong.

Leave a Comment

Register for your own account so you can vote on comments, save your favorites, and more. Learn more.
Please stay on topic, be civil, and be brief.
Email addresses are never displayed, but they are required to confirm your comments. Names are displayed with all comments. We reserve the right to edit any comments posted on this site. Please read the Comment Guidelines before posting. By leaving a comment, you agree to New York Public Radio's Privacy Policy and Terms Of Use.