The Guessing Game

Friday, December 09, 2005


Every day, journalists turn to "experts" to predict the outcome of current political trends. How often are these professional prophets right? Psychologist Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, followed-up on the prognostications of a few hundred "experts." He tells Brooke that being an expert is often the best predictor... of being wrong.

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