Marketplace of Ideas

Friday, February 01, 2008

Transcript

Political futures markets have long been regarded as good forecasters of real outcomes, drawing as they do on the wisdom of crowds. But Dan Gross, senior editor at Newsweek, wouldn’t bet on it. He says they’re not so much forecasting as they are reacting.

Comments [1]

Bill Korner from Newark, NJ

"Completely Inaccurate!" is not an expression that will win a lot of trust from me. This piece is most interesting when it avoids such generalizations in favor of somewhat more nuanced analysis. But you can't win points for being subtle and then turn around and punchline me with: "Long run... don't bet on them." Either give me some stats on how much more or less often they've been accurate than polls in a particular "long run" or, better yet, tell me why the data is inconclusive on that and under what conditions you would consider it conclusive.

Feb. 04 2008 08:19 PM

Leave a Comment

Register for your own account so you can vote on comments, save your favorites, and more. Learn more.
Please stay on topic, be civil, and be brief.
Email addresses are never displayed, but they are required to confirm your comments. Names are displayed with all comments. We reserve the right to edit any comments posted on this site. Please read the Comment Guidelines before posting. By leaving a comment, you agree to New York Public Radio's Privacy Policy and Terms Of Use.