October 24, 2008

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Friday, October 24, 2008

Show Summary: the curse of the exit poll; the myth of the Bradley effect; do newspaper endorsements actually matter?

Poll Me Twice

The 2000 and, to a lesser extent, 2004 election nights were big debacles for exit pollsters. Will 2008 be any different? Joe Lenski, co-founder and executive vice president of Edison Media Research, will conduct the exit polling for the TV news networks and the AP this year. He ...

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Magnetic Polls

When the exit polls are released from the quarantine room at 5pm EST on election day, they’ll be available to the major news broadcasters. They’ll also be incomplete, probably misleading and almost certainly leaked over the internet. Politico.com senior political writer David Kuhn says what the polls will certainly show ...

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Poll Dancer

As a veteran analyst, CBS News senior political correspondent Jeff Greenfield has seen the advantages and fantastic drawbacks of mis-controlled exit polls. But given election night on-air responsibilities he thinks the 5pm quarantine is a good compromise. He’s looking forward to dancing the line between being poll-informed ...

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Ghost of Bradley Present

Everyone's speculating on whether this election will produce a Bradley effect, a phenomenon where white voters tell pollsters they'll vote for the black candidate but actually pull the lever for the white candidate. The term comes from Tom Bradley's 1982 California gubernatorial run, but Democratic and ...

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Paper Backs

For the first time in its 161 year history, The Chicago Tribune endorsed the democratic party's nominee for president this week. The Los Angeles Times, after 36 years of endorsing no one, also endorsed Obama. But do such announcements really have an impact? Editor&Publisher ...

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The Terrorist Vote

Is Al-Qaeda's supposed endorsement of John McCain for president real, fake, reverse psychology, or reverse-reverse-reverse psychology? Melissa Joyner-Sykes, associate director for Central Asia policy analysis coordination at the Institute for Asymmetrical Warfare and Global Confrontation Metrics is not a real person. She joins Bob to discuss the implications ...

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War Room Revisited

In 1994, directors Chris Hegedus and D.A. Pennebaker released their documentary of the 1992 Clinton campaign, "The War Room." It starred Clinton strategists George Stephanopoulos and James Carville among others and it set the template for campaigning around the world. Hegedus and Pennebaker planned to make a quick look back ...

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The Art of Invention

The Onion News Network does for video what the Onion newspaper does for print – satire of current events and the media themselves. So how do they pull off a near dead-on approximation of an actual newscast? Executive producer Will Graham and head writer Carol Kolb ...

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