The Problem With Likely Voters

Friday, December 23, 2011


Political polls need to determine who's likely to vote and who isn't. Pollsters rely on people to tell them whether they're going to vote or not - but it turns out that may not be the best plan for creating accurate polling numbers. Bob talks with Slate's Sasha Issenberg about a study which found that 55 percent of voters who tell pollsters they won't vote actually do.

Nicolas Jaar - Problems With the Sun

Comments [1]

Francisco from Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

I am annoyed about the assumption in the discussion that if someone tells a pollster that they are not going to vote then subsequently do, they are lying. That assumes that people don't change their mind during a campaign and, if that were really true, then there is no point to advertising or any other form of campaigning.

Speaking for myself, I was underwhelmed by the election campaign in the UK in 2010. Based on the stories in the media, I was planning to simply write "none of the above" on my ballot paper until I found a link that actually compared the policies of the different parties.

I know that my story is just one story so you can't generalize from that but, similarly, making a blanket assumption that everybody who reports inaccurately is lying is also too much of a generalization.

Dec. 27 2011 04:00 PM

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