Less than a week before the election, many observers across the political spectrum say that they believe a victory for President Obama is highly likely. Others say that it's reckless to predict the future with any kind of certainty. Nate Silver of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog explains to Brooke the difference between forecasting and fortune-telling, and defends his belief that an Obama win seems probable. 

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Republican Bob Turner defeated Democrat David Weprin to take control of New York’s 9^th congressional district, the seat vacated by Anthony Weiner in June. This was widely reported as a sign that voter frustration with President Obama had trickled down into New York politics. Bob talks to political stat guru Nate Silver about whether he thinks this is a sign of things to come, or just over-extrapolation by the press.